Simulation of LUCC Dynamics and Estimation of Carbon Stock under Different SSP-RCP Scenarios in Heilongjiang Province

Abstract

An accurate estimation of carbon stocks in terrestrial ecosystem and their future changes in relation to land use and land cover change (LUCC) is important for regional territorial spatial optimization and low-carbon development. In this paper, we integrated the System Dynamics (SD) model, PLUS model and InVEST model to simulate land use dynamics and corresponding carbon stocks in Heilongjiang Province from 2030 to 2050 under three SSP-RCP scenarios proposed by the CMIP6. The findings revealed significant variations in land use demand projections across different SSP-RCP scenarios, with increases observed in farmland, construction land and unused land while decreases in woodland and grassland, and the SSP585 scenario showed the highest increment or decrease. Under the SSP126 scenario, the expansion of farmland was due to a reduction in construction land, with little change observed in woodland and grassland, which resulted in a carbon stock increase of 102.71 × 106 Mg at the highest rate; conversely, under the SSP585 scenario, rapid expansion of farmland, construction land and unused land came at the expense of forest and grassland, leading to a significant carbon stock decrease of 204.64 × 106 Mg. The increase in farmland and the decrease in woodland under the SSP245 scenario was relatively moderate with little change observed in construction, resulting in a carbon stock increase of 108.10 × 106 Mg. Regardless of any scenario considered here, forests remain an important carbon sink contributing significantly to carbon sequestration as well as other ecosystem services in Heilongjiang Province. Enhancing territorial spatial planning and ecological environment construction, while promoting an eco-economic development model, will significantly contribute to the achievement of carbon neutrality and regional sustainable development goals.