A Rolling Real-Time Correction Method for Minute Precipitation Forecast Based on Weather Radars

Abstract

The quantitative precipitation estimation by weather radar plays an important role in observations and forecasts of meteorological processes. The National Minute Quantitative Precipitation Forecast system of China (MQPF), providing location-based refined short-term and imminent precipitation forecasting services, filled the gap in the official minute precipitation service products in China’s meteorological field. However, due to the technical limitations of radar itself and the complexity of the atmosphere, the corresponding relationship between radar echoes and surface precipitation is unstable. Based on radar and precipitation data from meteorological stations, a rolling real-time correction method is proposed to improve precipitation prediction accuracy through rolling correction of spatial and temporal structural errors in MQPF products. The results show the following: (1) Although this method may lead to a certain increase in the missing ratio, the significant improvement in the false alarm ratio after rolling correction has a positive guiding effect on short-term public meteorological services. (2) Regarding the time to complete rolling correction, the longest and shortest times appear in April and December, respectively. The mean running time to achieve correction of spatial and temporal error corrections ranges from 3.8 s to 6.4 s and 7.7 s to 11.5 s, respectively, which fully meets the real-time operational requirements of radar business.