Preferences of Young Polish Renters: Findings from the Mediation Analysis

Abstract

The worsening housing problems of young adults in many countries have become a worldwide problem. Researchers point to a number of factors that influence young people’s decisions to own or rent their own apartments or houses. The term generation of renters or the lost generation has appeared in the literature in relation to the young adult generation. This article offers insights into the housing preferences of young adults aged 18 to 45 in Poland, with a particular focus on the renter cohort. Conclusions are drawn about whether young adults who are already renting prefer to buy an apartment or house rather than maintain their status quo, and what determines their decisions in this regard. The study identifies a number of socioeconomic factors that influence the housing decisions of young renters in Poland. It addresses some of the problems and challenges of today’s housing market and, in particular, examines what leads young Polish renters to switch from renting to buying their first home or, alternatively, to live in a rented apartment for years (thus showing indifference to homeownership). Some of the reasons for the change in attitude toward this issue are highlighted. The study is quantitative in nature, relying on an online survey and a mediation analysis that is particularly well suited to explaining the relationship between many different variables. Of the eight hypotheses tested in the study (using mediation analysis), only three could be proven, namely that the amount of rent payments and other costs for economic reasons influences the willingness to buy an apartment or a house, and also that the length of the rental period has a negative influence on the willingness to buy a house. Finally, the mediation model provides evidence that the higher a young renter’s tolerance threshold for mortgage interest compared to “rent payments”, the more inclined they are to buy an apartment or house. The study suggests that the housing finance subsystem has some shortcomings as far as financing young people is concerned. Strategically, there are two complementary solutions that could be implemented: (1) a long-term home savings plan or program and (2) innovative housing loan options tailored to the financial situation of young people.