Risk Performance Analysis on Navigation of MASS via a Hybrid Framework of STPA and HMM: Evidence from the Human–Machine Co-Driving Mode

Abstract

The remote control ship is considered to be the most likely implementation of maritime autonomous surface ships (MASS) in the near-term future. With collaborative control from onboard controllers and operators ashore, ships may operate in three navigation control modes (NCMs), manual, autonomous, and remote control, based on different levels of control authority. The scientific selection of the appropriate NCM for MASS under multiple driving modes is crucial for ensuring ship navigation safety and holds significant importance for operators and regulatory authorities overseeing maritime traffic within specific areas. To aid in selecting the proper NCM, this study introduces a risk-based comparison method for determining optimal control modes in specific scenarios. Firstly, safety control paths and processes for MASS under different NCMs are constructed and analyzed using system-theoretic process analysis (STPA). By analyzing unsafe system control actions, key Risk Influencing Factors (RIFs) and their interrelationships are identified. Secondly, a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) process risk assessment model is developed to infer risk performance (hidden state) through measuring RIF states. Cloud modeling with expert judgments is utilized to parameterize the HMM while addressing inherent uncertainty. Lastly, the applicability of the proposed framework was verified through simulation case studies. Typical navigation scenarios of conventional ships in coastal waters were chosen, and real-time data collected by relevant sensors during navigation were used as simulation inputs. Results suggest that in the same scenario, process risks differ among the analyzed NCMs. Traffic complexity, traffic density, and current become the primary factors influencing navigation risks, and it is necessary to select the appropriate NCM based on their real-time changes.