Assessment and Forecast of Green Total Factor Energy Efficiency in the Yellow River Basin—A Perspective Distinguishing the Upper, Middle and Lower Stream

Abstract

As the fifth-longest river globally, the Yellow River is of great importance to the world’s ecological protection. Due to its location as an essential ecological barrier and economic zone, it is imperative to balance energy support and ecological management in the basin. In this process, improving energy efficiency is crucial solution. Distinguished into upstream, midstream, and downstream, we measured the trajectory of green total factor energy efficiency over the past fifteen years using the Super-Epsilon-based model. Further, we identified the heterogeneity of energy efficiency within different river basins with the help of kernel density estimation. We used it to analyze the geographical and policy reasons affecting energy efficiency fluctuations. Finally, we constructed high, medium, and low GDP growth scenarios, and used a long short-term memory neural network model to predict energy efficiency forecasts in each scenario. The study results clarified that the overall energy efficiency showed an upward trend since 2013. Among them, the most significant improvement in energy efficiency was observed upstream, while the energy efficiency in the middle and lower stream showed a decreasing trend. Regarding future development trends, an economic growth rate of 6.5% was most favorable for energy efficiency compared to 6% and 7%. This finding reminded us to be alert to the ecological condition of the lower Yellow River basin. In addition, maintaining an appropriate economic growth rate is helpful for the balance between development and ecology.