The Harmonious Relationship between Energy Utilization Efficiency and Industrial Structure Development under Carbon Emission Constraints: Measurement, Quantification, and Identification

Abstract

Addressing the challenge of attaining a harmonious balance between energy utilization efficiency and the level of industrial structure development is crucial for promoting regional sustainable development. Aiming at the goal of carbon neutrality, a three-stage method to analyze the relationship between energy utilization and industrial structure development is proposed. The multidimensional input–output index system was augmented with a carbon emission constraint. Additionally, two classical data envelopment analysis models were integrated to establish a dynamic measurement model for energy utilization efficiency, ensuring comparability among all decision-making units. From two perspectives of industrial structure, rational degree and advanced degree, the industrial structure development index was proposed to quantitatively characterize the level of regional industrial structure development. Drawing upon the Tapio decoupling theory, an elaborate model for identifying harmonious relationships was constructed to refine the recognition of the harmonious state between energy utilization efficiency and industrial structural development. A city-scale case study was conducted in Heilongjiang Province, a typical energy province in Northern China. The results revealed that: (a) energy utilization efficiency in various cities has exhibited a consistent upward trend, with the average efficiency rising from 0.54 in 2010 to 0.88 in 2020. Core cities like Daqing and Harbin stand out in energy utilization, and the disparity in energy utilization levels between different cities is progressively diminishing; (b) the overall level of industrial structural development has shown a weak downward trend. Harbin has the best industrial structure development level, with a quantitative index higher than 0.8. For some cities with relatively backward industrial structures, it is necessary to clarify new industrial development positioning and promote deep optimization of industrial structures; and (c) the harmonious relationship between energy utilization efficiency and industrial structural development demonstrates stage characteristics, indicating an overall negative decoupling relationship with limited dynamic coordination. These distinct findings will assist in identifying potential solutions for achieving high-quality development in traditional industrial cities under carbon emission constraints.