Analysis and Evaluation of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on Prevention and Control of COVID-19: A Case Study of Wuhan City

Abstract

As the threat of COVID-19 increases, many countries have carried out various non-pharmaceutical interventions. Although many studies have evaluated the impact of these interventions, there is a lack of mapping between model parameters and actual geographic areas. In this study, a non-pharmaceutical intervention model of COVID-19 based on a discrete grid is proposed from the perspective of geography. This model can provide more direct and effective information for the formulation of prevention and control policies. First, a multi-level grid was introduced to divide the geographical space, and the properties of the grid boundary were used to describe the quarantine status and intensity in these different spaces; this was also combined with the model of hospital isolation and self-protection. Then, a process for the spatiotemporal evolution of the early COVID-19 spread is proposed that integrated the characteristics of residents’ daily activities. Finally, the effect of the interventions was quantitatively analyzed by the dynamic transmission model of COVID-19. The results showed that quarantining is the most effective intervention, especially for infectious diseases with a high infectivity. The introduction of a quarantine could effectively reduce the number of infected humans, advance the peak of the maximum infected number of people, and shorten the duration of the pandemic. However, quarantines only function properly when employed at sufficient intensity; hospital isolation and self-protection measures can effectively slow the spread of COVID-19, thus providing more time for the relevant departments to prepare, but an outbreak will occur again when the hospital reaches full capacity. Moreover, medical resources should be concentrated in places where there is the most urgent need under a strict quarantine measure.