How to Set the Proper CO2 Reduction Targets for the Provincial Building Sector of China?

Abstract

The improvement of the energy and carbon emission efficiency of activities in the building sector is the key to China’s realization of the Paris Agreement. We can explore effective emission abatement approaches for the building sector by evaluating the carbon emissions and energy efficiency of construction activities, measuring the emission abatement potential of construction activities across the country and regions, and measuring the marginal abatement cost (MAC) of China and various regions. This study calculates the energy and carbon emissions performance of the building sector of 30 provinces and regions in China from 2005 to 2015, measures the dynamic changes in the energy-saving potential and carbon emission performance of the building sector, conducts relevant verification, and estimates the MAC of the building sector by using the slacks-based measure-directional distance function. The level of energy consumption per unit of the building sector of China has been decreasing yearly, but the energy structure has changed minimally (considering that clean energy is used). The total factor technical efficiency of the building sector of various provinces, cities, and regions is generally low, as verified in the evaluation of the energy-saving and emission abatement potential of the building sector of China. The energy saving and emission abatement of the building sector of China have great potential—that is, in approximately 50% of the total emissions of the building sector of China. In particular, Northeast and North China account for more than 50% of the total energy-saving and emission abatement potential. The study of the CO2 emissions and MAC of the building sector indicates that the larger the CO2 emissions are, the smaller MAC will be. The emission abatement efficiency is proportional to MAC. Based on this research, it can be more equitable and effective in formulating provincial emission reduction policy targets at the national level, and can maximize the contribution of the building sector of various provinces to the national carbon emission reduction.