Prediction of China’s Grain Consumption from the Perspective of Sustainable Development—Based on GM(1,1) Model

Abstract

Being the largest producer and consumer of grain in the world, China occupies an extremely important position in the world grain market. The grain security of China is confronted with such problems as shortages of water and soil resources, a fragile ecological environment, and infrastructure constraints. The prediction and analysis of China’s grain consumption is conducive to establishing a resource-saving grain production mode, a sustainable grain supply and demand system, and a national grain security guarantee system at a higher level. In order to judge the future development trend of China’s grain accurately, guide grain production, stabilize grain expectation, and serve the relevant decision making of grain security, the GM(1,1) prediction model of China’s grain consumption has been constructed in this paper. Prediction research has been conducted with the grain consumption structure as the entry point. The model has high prediction accuracy and can be used for medium- and long-term prediction of China’s grain consumption after testing. The prediction results show that China’s grain consumption will continue to increase from 2022 to 2031, which is consistent with the factors of population change, urbanization promotion, consumption structure upgrading, and so on, in the country. Among the different types of consumption, the change in eating consumption will be small, the growth in feeding consumption and squeezing (soybean) consumption will slow down, industrial consumption will increase steadily, and seed consumption will be basically stable.