The analysis of GM (1, 1) grey model to predict the health resource allocation in Jilin Province, China: An observational study

Abstract

To predict the development of health resource allocation in Jilin Province during the 14th 5-Year Plan period, and to provide a scientific basis for promoting the improvement of its service capacity. The data of the health resource from 2015 to 2022 were obtained from the Jilin Statistical Yearbook, and the number of medical institutions, medical beds, health technicians, licensed (assistant) physicians, registered nurses and pharmacists were selected as evaluation indicators, and the grey prediction model constructed by Python was used to predict the development from 2023 to 2025. In the 14th 5-Year Plan period, the health resource in Jilin Province showed an increasing trend, and it is predicted that in 2025, the number of medical institutions, medical beds, health technicians, licensed (assistant) physicians, registered nurses, and pharmacists in Jilin Province will reach 28,999, 196,328, 262,219, 101,273, 129,586, and 9469, respectively. Except that the pharmacist team failed to meet the planning objectives of the 14th 5-Year Plan, the remaining health resources could meet the planning requirements. The allocation level of health resources in Jilin Province has been continuously improved, but it still faces the problems that the allocation of medical beds needs to be optimized, the doctor-nurse ratio needs to be improved, the reserve of registered nurses is insufficient, there is a gap in the pharmacist team, and the development of pharmacy services is slow.