Prospects of Precipitation Based on Reconstruction over the Last 2000 Years in the Qilian Mountains

Abstract

The prospect of precipitation is of great significance to the distribution of industry and agriculture in Northwest China. The cycle characteristics of temperature and precipitation in the Qilian Mountains were identified by complex Morlet wavelet analysis and were simulated with sine functions. The results indicate that the main cycle of 200 years modulates the variations of temperature and precipitation over the past 2000 years and that cycle simulations fluctuate around the long-term trend. The temperature in the Qilian Mountains exhibits an obvious upward trend during the period 1570–1990 AD, while the precipitation trend shows a slight increase. The “wet-island” moisture pattern of the Qilian Mountains may be responsible for this. The moisture of the Qilian Mountains is principally sourced from the evapotranspiration of adjacent arid and semi-arid areas and is controlled by regional climate. The precipitation is close to the relative maximum and is at the positive phase of main cycle. It may not be beyond 400 mm in the next 200-year cycle, and the increment of precipitation might result from regional climate change.