Evolution Characteristics of Rainfall and Runoff in the Upper Reaches of Zhang River Basin

Abstract

It is of great significance to study and analyze the surface water resources and their change trend in the groundwater overexploitation area of the North China Plain, which is of great significance to solve the shortage of water resources in the groundwater overexploitation area of the North China Plain, promote the exploitation of groundwater, and realize the sustainable development of water resources. This paper takes Minyou Irrigation District of Handan City, a typical overexploitation area in the North China Plain, as an example. Based on the measured rainfall and runoff data from 1957 to 2020, the Mann–Kendall trend test, cumulative anomaly method, double cumulative curve method, and Morlet wavelet transform were used to analyze and predict the trend of water resources in the irrigation area and the individual contribution of climate change and human activities to runoff change. The results show that the annual rainfall and annual runoff in the irrigation area have a significant downward trend and significant cyclical changes throughout the study period. In 1977, the annual runoff showed a sudden change, and the average contribution rates of climate change and human activities to its change were 40.55% and 59.46%, respectively. In the future (2020–2035), runoff will remain stable and rainfall will show an increasing trend. The research results can provide scientific reference for the development, utilization, and rational allocation of surface water resources in the groundwater overexploitation area of the North China Plain.