Energy Security Analysis for a 100% Renewable Energy Transition in Jordan by 2050

Abstract

Energy security analysis is a strong tool for policy makers. It allows them to formulate policies that would enhance energy systems by targeting necessary actions. In this study, the impacts of transitioning from a fossil fuels to a renewables dominated energy system on energy security is analysed for Jordan. A Best Policy Scenario was developed for the Jordanian energy system to trace the transition to a 100% renewable energy system. Energy security was analysed for the future system by a qualitative approach utilising colour codes. The results reveal that the primary energy demand increases from 64 TWh in 2015 to 130 TWh in 2050, dominated by electricity and followed by heat and bioenergy. This indicates that a high level of direct and indirect electrification is the key to transition towards a fully sustainable energy system. Renewable electricity generation is projected to increase from 0.1 TWh in 2015 to 110.7 TWh in 2050, with a solar photovoltaic share of 92%. The levelised cost of energy develops from 78 €/MWh in 2015 to 61 €/MWh in 2050. In 2050, this system will have zero greenhouse gas emissions, it will provide plenty of job opportunities and revenue generation. This proposed transition will enhance the energy security level of the Jordanian energy system in five of the six dimensions studied. The five dimensions that will be improved are availability, cost, environment, health, and employment, whereas the dimension on diversity will stay neutral. It can be concluded that Jordan can achieve a 100% renewable energy system by 2050 and such a transition will enhance the energy security level.