Risk Quantification and Visualization Method for Loss-of-Control Scenarios in Flight

Abstract

This paper proposes a flight risk analysis method that combines risk assessment and visual deduction to study the causes of flight accidents, specifically the loss of control caused by failure factors. The goal is to explore the impact of these failure factors on loss-of-control events and illustrate the risk evolution under different scenarios in a clear and intuitive manner. To achieve this, the paper develops a failure scenario tree to guide flight simulations under different loss-of-control scenarios. The next step involves developing a multi-parameters risk assessment method that can quantify flight risk at each time step of the flight simulation. This assessment method uses entropy weight and a grey correlation algorithm to assign variable weights to the different parameters. Finally, the paper presents the visual deduction of the risk evolution process under different loss-of-control scenarios using a risk tree that concisely represents the time-series risk assessment results and failure logical chains. Taking three common failure factors (actuator failure, engine failure, and wing icing) as cases, the paper designs 25 different loss-of-control scenarios to demonstrate the flight risk analysis method. By comparing the risk evolution process under different loss-of-control scenarios, the paper explores the impact of the failure factors on flight safety. The analysis results indicate that this method combines risk analysis from both individual and global perspectives, enabling effective analysis of risk evolution in loss-of-control events.