Impact of Mega Constellations on Geospace Safety

Abstract

The extent of the impact of mega constellations on the low-orbiting geospace environment, which has not yet been assessed in more concrete quantitative terms, is an extremely important issue to consider as mega constellations are built. Satellite safety and lifetime can clearly represent the situation of space targets, and thus can reflect the impact of mega constellations on geospace security. Three target satellites with different characteristics were selected and the Accepted Collision Probability Level (ACPL) was calculated to obtain the impact of Starlink on satellite mission lifetime. Upon considering Starlink without early avoidance control, the lifetimes of the three target satellites were shortened by 56.21%, 99.09%, and 99.82%, respectively. After 10 revolutions of early avoidance control, two were shortened to 92.166% and 91.99%, while the lifetime of JILIN-01 was extended by 155.44%. After joining Starlink, the total risk became larger; even if the target satellite avoided control far more frequently than before joining Starlink, it will face a worse geospace environment. Adopting the most aggressive orbit avoidance control cannot avoid the deterioration of the geospace environment from the perspective of satellite lifetime, which is an irreversible and deteriorating process.