Fractional Modelling and Optimal Control of COVID-19 Transmission in Portugal

Author:

Rosa SilvérioORCID,Torres Delfim F. M.ORCID

Abstract

A fractional-order compartmental model was recently used to describe real data of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Portugal [Chaos Solitons Fractals 144 (2021), Art. 110652]. Here, we modify that model in order to correct time dimensions and use it to investigate the third wave of COVID-19 that occurred in Portugal from December 2020 to February 2021, and that has surpassed all previous waves, both in number and consequences. A new fractional optimal control problem is then formulated and solved, with vaccination and preventive measures as controls. A cost-effectiveness analysis is carried out, and the obtained results are discussed.

Funder

Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia

Publisher

MDPI AG

Subject

Geometry and Topology,Logic,Mathematical Physics,Algebra and Number Theory,Analysis

Reference28 articles.

1. World Health Organization https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/interactive-timeline#

2. Analysis of Infectious Disease Problems (COVID-19) and Their Global Impact;Agarwal,2021

3. A pre-registered short-term forecasting study of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during the second wave

4. A Robust H∞ Fault Tolerant Controller for Uncertain Systems Described by Linear Fractional Transformation Model

5. A general fractional formulation and tracking control for immunogenic tumor dynamics

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3