Liquified Petroleum Gas-Fuelled Vehicle CO2 Emission Modelling Based on Portable Emission Measurement System, On-Board Diagnostics Data, and Gradient-Boosting Machine Learning

Abstract

One method to reduce CO2 emissions from vehicle exhaust is the use of liquified petroleum gas (LPG) fuel. The global use of this fuel is high in European countries such as Poland, Romania, and Italy. There are a small number of computational models for the purpose of estimating the emissions of LPG vehicles. This work is one of the first to present a methodology for developing microscale CO2 emission models for LPG vehicles. The developed model is based on data from road tests using the portable emission measurement system (PEMS) and on-board diagnostic (OBDII) interface. This model was created from a previous exploratory data analysis while using gradient-boosting machine learning methods. Vehicle velocity and engine RPM were chosen as the explanatory variables for CO2 prediction. The validation of the model indicates its good precision, while its use is possible for the analysis of continuous CO2 emissions and the creation of emission maps for environmental analyses in urban areas. The validation coefficients for the selected gradient-boosting method of modelling CO2 emissions for an LPG vehicle are the R2 test of 0.61 and the MSE test of 0.77.