Calculation of Carbon Emissions and Study of the Emission Reduction Path of Conventional Public Transportation in Harbin City

Abstract

As the northernmost megacity in China, the long winters, large population size, and unsustainable transport structure in Harbin determine that the city will produce relatively large carbon emissions. The transportation industry is one of the three greenhouse gas emission sources; therefore, the development of low-carbon transportation is imperative. This work compares commonly used carbon emission measurement methods and chooses a mileage method to classify the carbon emissions of conventional buses of different energy types used in Harbin in 2020. A multi-factor grey prediction model was constructed to predict the population size of Harbin and the number of conventional buses. After that, a scenario analysis method was used to analyze the fuel structure of buses in Harbin from three perspectives: a pessimistic scenario, a baseline scenario, and an optimistic scenario. The carbon emissions of conventional buses were calculated for Harbin from 2023 to 2030. Finally, by combining the prediction results and factors influencing carbon emission, a regular bus path to minimize carbon emissions is proposed. The outcome of this study shows that the carbon emission environment in Harbin will be improved by reducing vehicle energy consumption, optimizing energy structure, standardizing driving behavior, building intelligent transportation, giving priority to public transportation, and improving the road network structure.