Long-Term Ampacity Prediction Method for Cable Intermediate Joints Based on the Prophet Model

Abstract

The development of power grids is hindered by the limited transmission capacity of cable equipment, necessitating the accurate prediction of dynamic ampacity for cable expansion. This study focuses on the 110 kV cable intermediate joint, employing radial and axial inversion techniques for real-time conductor temperature inversion. Utilizing the Prophet time series model, we predict environmental changes and propose a dynamic ampacity evaluation method for cable intermediate joints. Experimental validation confirms the model’s accuracy, with prediction errors under 10 K, demonstrating its potential for enhancing cable system reliability and power grid development.