Integrated Planning for Regional Electric Power System Management with Risk Measure and Carbon Emission Constraints: A Case Study of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China

Abstract

With the carbon reduction targets being set in the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, China is facing great pressure to meet its emission reduction commitment. The electric power industry as the major source of carbon emissions needs to be a focus. However, the uncertainty of power systems, the risk of reducing emissions and the fuzziness of carbon capture technology popularization rate and carbon reduction targets makes previous planning methods unsatisfactory for current planning. This paper establishes an interval fuzzy programming with a risk measure model which takes carbon capture technology and carbon reduction targets into account, to ensure that the complex electric management system achieves the best developmental state. It was concluded that in order to reduce carbon emissions, wind power and hydropower would be the best choices, and coal-fired power would be the suboptimal choice, and solar power would play a complementary role. Besides, decision makers should put much more effort into promoting and improving carbon capture technology instead of simply setting emission reduction targets. The non-synchronism of the downward trend in carbon emissions per unit of electricity generation and electric power industry total carbon emissions need to be taken seriously.