A Short-Term Hybrid Energy System Robust Optimization Model for Regional Electric-Power Capacity Development Planning under Different Pollutant Control Pressures

Abstract

This paper is aimed at proposing a short-term hybrid energy system robust optimization model for regional energy system planning and air pollution mitigation based on the inexact multi-stage stochastic integer programming and conditional value-at-risk method through a case study in Shandong Province, China. Six power conversion technologies (i.e., coal-fired power, hydropower, photovoltaic power, wind power, biomass power, and nuclear power) and power demand sectors (agriculture, industry, building industry, transportation, business, and residential department) were considered in the proposed model. The optimized electricity generation, capacity expansion schemes, and economic risks were selected to analyze nine defined scenarios. Results revealed that electricity generations of clean and new power had obvious increasing risks and were key considerations of establishing additional capacities to meet the rising social demands. Moreover, the levels of pollutants mitigation and risk-aversion had a significant influence on different power generation schemes and on the total system cost. In addition, the optimization method developed in this paper could effectively address uncertainties expressed as probability distributions and interval values, and could avoid the system risk in energy system planning problems. The proposed optimization model could be valuable for supporting the adjustment or justification of air pollution mitigation management and electric power planning schemes in Shandong, as well as in other regions of China.