Performance Evaluation of the Impact of Clustering Methods and Parameters on Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System Models for Electricity Consumption Prediction during COVID-19

Abstract

Increasing economic and population growth has led to a rise in electricity consumption. Consequently, electrical utility firms must have a proper energy management strategy in place to improve citizens’ quality of life and ensure an organization’s seamless operation, particularly amid unanticipated circumstances such as coronavirus disease (COVID-19). There is a growing interest in the application of artificial intelligence models to electricity prediction during the COVID-19 pandemic, but the impacts of clustering methods and parameter selection have not been explored. Consequently, this study investigates the impacts of clustering techniques and different significant parameters of the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) model for predicting electricity consumption during the COVID-19 pandemic using districts of Lagos, Nigeria as a case study. The energy prediction of the dataset was examined in relation to three clustering techniques: grid partitioning (GP), subtractive clustering (SC), fuzzy c-means (FCM), and other key parameters such as clustering radius (CR), input and output membership functions, and the number of clusters. Using renowned statistical metrics, the best sub-models for each clustering technique were selected. The outcome showed that the ANFIS-based FCM technique produced the best results with five clusters, with the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Coefficient of Variation (RCoV), Coefficient of Variation of the Root Mean Square Error (CVRMSE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) being 1137.6024, 898.5070, 0.0586, 11.5727, and 9.3122, respectively. The FCM clustering technique is recommended for usage in ANFIS models that employ similar time series data due to its accuracy and speed.