Improving the Maritime Traffic Evaluation with the Course and Speed Model

Abstract

Recent projections from marine transportation experts highlight an uptick in maritime traffic, attributed to the fourth industrial revolution’s technological strides and global economic rebound. This trend underscores the need for enhanced systems for maritime accident prediction and traffic management. In this study, to analyze the flow of maritime traffic macroscopically, spatiality and continuity reflecting the output of ships are considered. The course–speed (CS) model used in this study involved analyzing COG, ROT, speed, and acceleration, which can be obtained from the ship’s AIS data, and calculating the deviation from the standard plan. In addition, spatiality and continuity were quantitatively analyzed to evaluate the smoothness of maritime traffic flow. A notable finding is that, in the target sea area, the outbound and inbound CS indices are measured at 0.7613 and 0.7501, suggesting that the outbound ship flows are more affected than inbound ship flows to the liquidity of maritime traffic flow. Using the CS model, a detailed quantitative evaluation of the spatiality and continuity of maritime traffic is presented. This approach facilitates robust comparisons over diverse scales and periods. Moreover, the research advances our understanding of factors dictating maritime traffic flow based on ship attributes. The study insights can catalyze the development of a novel index for maritime traffic management, enhancing safety and efficiency.