Application of Satellite Data for Estimating Rooftop Solar Photovoltaic Potential

Abstract

Rooftop solar photovoltaics can significantly contribute to global energy transitions by providing clean, decentralized energy without the need for new land, thereby avoiding land-use conflicts. It serves as a valuable complement to other renewable-energy sources and is expected to play a crucial role in future electricity systems. Due to the spatiotemporal variability in the solar radiation on roof surfaces, it is essential to determine the potentials of the rooftop photovoltaics and its variations in specific regions. In Germany, this potential was assessed in 5 km × 5 km zones, as well as at the federal-state and national levels. High-quality satellite and reanalysis data were used to determine the power output of the solar photovoltaics. Additionally, high-resolution (2 m × 2 m) European Settlement Map data, calibrated with solar cadastre data, were utilized to evaluate different scenarios. The results show that the potential is concentrated in larger urban areas and the southwestern part of Germany due to the availability of rooftop space and solar radiation. Overall, the national rooftop areas are substantial across all scenarios, ranging from 2100 to 4500 km2. The applied methods and scenarios provide a straightforward way to reveal the spatiotemporal variability and define realistic ranges of the solar photovoltaic potential without requiring detailed information about each building. However, assessing the rooftop photovoltaic potential remains challenging and uncertain due to the lack of large-scale, high-resolution data on building characteristics and the complexity of the solar radiation distribution in urban environments.