A Modified NAR Scoring Model Incorporating Immune Infiltration Characteristics to Better Predict Long-Term Survival Following Neoadjuvant Radiotherapy in Rectal Cancer

Abstract

(1) Background: The neoadjuvant rectal (NAR) score has been developed as a prognostic tool for survival in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). However, the NAR score only incorporates weighted cT, ypT, and ypN categories. This long-term follow-up study aims to modify a novel prognostic scoring model and identify a short-term endpoint for survival. (2) Methods: The prognostic factors for overall survival (OS) were explored through univariate and multivariate analyses. Based on Cox regression modeling, nomogram plots were constructed. Area under the curve (AUC) and concordance indices were used to evaluate the performance of the nomogram. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was conducted to compare the efficiency of the nomogram with other prognostic factors. (3) Results: After a long-term follow-up, the 5-year OS was 67.1%. The mean NAR score was 20.4 ± 16.3. Multivariate analysis indicated that CD8+ T-cell, lymphovascular invasion, and the NAR score were independent predictors of OS. The modified NAR scoring model, incorporating immune infiltration characteristics, exhibited a high C-index of 0.739 for 5-year OS, significantly outperforming any individual factor. Moreover, the predictive value of the nomogram was superior to the AJCC stage and pathological complete regression at 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year time points, respectively. Over time, the model’s predictions of long-term survival remained consistent and improved in accuracy. (4) Conclusions: The modified NAR scoring model, incorporating immune infiltration characteristics, demonstrates high accuracy and consistency in predicting OS.