Evaluation and Driving Determinants of the Coordination between Ecosystem Service Supply and Demand: A Case Study in Shanxi Province

Abstract

Understanding the coordination relationship between ecosystem service (ES) supply and demand and elucidating the impact of driving factors is critical for regional land use planning and ecological sustainability. We use a large watershed area as a case to map and analyze ES supply, demand and the coordination relationship, and identify the associated socio-ecological driving variables. This study assessed the supply and demand of five ESs (crop production, water retention, soil conservation, carbon sequestration, and outdoor recreation) in 2000 and 2020, and evaluated the coordination between them employing the coupling coordination degree model (CCDM). Additionally, we utilized the geo-detector model (GDM) to identify driving determinants and their interactive effects on the spatial pattern of the coupling coordination degree (CCD) between ES supply and demand. The results showed that mountainous regions with abundant forest coverage were high-value areas for ES supply, while the ESs were predominantly required in city center areas within each basin area. From 2000 to 2020, there was a slight decline in ES supply and a significant increase in ES demand. Counties were grouped into four coordination zones in the study area: extreme incoordination, moderate incoordination, reluctant coordination, and moderate coordination. The number of counties with extreme incoordination linked to regions with a mountain ecosystem is increasing, where the ES supply is much greater than the demand. The moderate incoordination counties dominated by a cropland ecosystem exhibited slightly higher levels of ES supply than demand. The moderate and reluctant coordination were linked to counties with distinct ecological characteristics. Construction land played a major role in the characteristics of the CCD, followed by grassland. The interaction between construction land and all other factors significantly increased the influence on the CCD. These findings offered valuable insights for land managers to identify areas characterized by incoordination between ES supply and demand and understand associated factors to develop optimal ES management strategies.