The Impacts of Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of Plodia interpunctella (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) in China

Abstract

The Indian meal moth Plodia interpunctella (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) is a notorious stored-grain pest that can be found in most parts of China. The corpses, excretions, and other secretions of P. interpunctella larvae cause serious grain pollution, seriously affecting the nutritional and economic value of stored grain in China. To elucidate the potential distribution of P. interpunctella in China, we used the CLIMEX 4.0 model to project the potential distribution of the pest using historical climate data (1960–1990) and estimated future climate data (2030, 2050, and 2070). Under the historical climate situation, P. interpunctella was distributed in most areas of China, and its highly favorable habitats account for 48.14% of its total potential distribution. Because of temperature change in the future climate, suitable habitats will increase in the eastern part of Qinghai and will decrease in the mid-eastern, northeastern, and southeastern parts of China. Under these scenarios, the area of this pest’s highly favorable habitat will be reduced by 1.24 million km2, and its proportion will decrease to about 28.48%. These predicted outcomes will help to distinguish the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of P. interpunctella, thereby providing important information to design early forecasting and strategies to prevent pest harm to stored grain.