Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on the Geographical Distribution of Leafhopper, Cicadella viridis in China through the MaxEnt Model

Abstract

Cicadella viridis (Hemiptera: Cicadellidae) is an omnivorous leafhopper that feeds on plant sap. It significantly reduces the yield of agricultural and forestry crops while feeding or ovipositing on the host plant. In recent years, the rapid expansion of C. viridis has posed a serious threat to agricultural and forestry crops. To study the impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of the leafhopper, the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model and ArcGIS software, combined with 253 geographic distribution records of the pest and 24 environmental variables, were used, for the first time, to predict the potential distribution of C. viridis in China under conditions of climatic change. The results showed that the currently suitable areas for C. viridis are 29.06–43° N, 65.25–85.15° E, and 93.45–128.85° E, with an estimated area of 11,231,423.79 km2, i.e., 11.66% of China. The Loess Plateau, the North China Plain, and the Shandong Peninsula are the main suitable areas. The potential distribution of the leafhopper for the high and medium suitability areas decreased under each climate scenario (except RCP8.5 in the 2090s). Several key variables that have the most significant effect on the distribution of C. viridis were identified, including the mean annual temperature (Bio1), the standard deviation of temperature seasonality (Bio4), the minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6), and the precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio19). Our research provides important guidance for developing effective monitoring and pest control methods for C. viridis, given the predicted challenges of altered pest dynamics related to future climate change.