Automatic Calibration of Microscopic Traffic Simulation Models Using Artificial Neural Networks

Abstract

Traffic simulations are valuable tools for urban mobility planning and operation, particularly in large cities. Simulation-based microscopic models have enabled traffic engineers to understand local transit and transport behaviors more deeply and manage urban mobility. However, for the simulations to be effective, the transport network and user behavior parameters must be calibrated to mirror real scenarios. In general, calibration is performed manually by traffic engineers who use their knowledge and experience to adjust the parameters of the simulator. Unfortunately, there is still no systematic and automatic process for calibrating traffic simulation networks, although some methods have been proposed in the literature. This study proposes a methodology that facilitates the calibration process, where an artificial neural network (ANN) is trained to learn the behavior of the transport network of interest. The ANN used is the Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), trained with back-propagation methods. Based on this learning procedure, the neural network can select the optimized values of the simulation parameters that best mimic the traffic conditions of interest. Experiments considered two microscopic models of traffic and two psychophysical models (Wiedemann 74 and Wiedemann 99). The microscopic traffic models are located in the metropolitan region of São Paulo, Brazil. Moreover, we tested the different configurations of the MLP (layers and numbers of neurons) as well as several variations of the backpropagation training method: Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD), Adam, Adagrad, Adadelta, Adamax, and Nadam. The results of the experiments show that the proposed methodology is accurate and efficient, leading to calibration with a correlation coefficient greater than 0.8, when the calibrated parameters generate more visible effects on the road network, such as travel times, vehicle counts, and average speeds. For the psychophysical parameters, in the most simplified model (W74), the correlation coefficient was greater than 0.7. The advantage of using ANN for the automatic calibration of simulation parameters is that it allows traffic engineers to carry out comprehensive studies on a large number of future scenarios, such as at different times of the day, as well as on different days of the week and months of the year.