Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts on the Global Distribution of the Calliphorid Fly Chrysomya albiceps Using GIS

Abstract

Climate change is expected to influence the geographic distribution of many taxa, including insects. Chrysomya albiceps is one of the most pervasive calliphorid fly with apparent ecological, forensic, and medical importance. However, the global habitat suitability is varied due to climate change. Models that forecast species spatial distribution are increasingly being used in wildlife management, highlighting the need for trustworthy techniques to assess their accuracy. So, we used the maximum entropy implemented in Maxent to predict the current and future potential global geographic distribution of C. albiceps and algorithms of DIVA-GIS to confirm the predicted current model. The Maxent model was calibrated using 2177 occurrence records. Based on the Jackknife test, four bioclimatic variables along with altitude were used to develop the final models. For future models, two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), 2.6 and 8.5, for 2050 and 2070 were used. The area under curve (AUC) and true skill statistics (TSS) were used to evaluate the resulted models with values equal to 0.92 (±0.001) and 0.7, respectively. Two-dimensional niche analysis illustrated that the insect can adapt to low and high temperatures (9 °C to 27 °C), and the precipitation range was 0 mm to 2500 mm. The resulted models illustrated the global distribution of C. albiceps with alteration to its distribution in the future, especially on the Mediterranean coasts of Europe and Africa, Florida in the USA, and the coasts of Australia. Such predicted shifts put decision makers against their responsibilities to prevent destruction in economic, medical, and ecological sectors.