Using a Data Driven Approach to Predict Waves Generated by Gravity Driven Mass Flows

Abstract

When colossal gravity-driven mass flows enter a body of water, they may generate waves which can have destructive consequences on coastal areas. A number of empirical equations in the form of power functions of several dimensionless groups have been developed to predict wave characteristics. However, in some complex cases (for instance, when the mass striking the water is made up of varied slide materials), fitting an empirical equation with a fixed form to the experimental data may be problematic. In contrast to previous empirical equations that specified the mathematical operators in advance, we developed a purely data-driven approach which relies on datasets and does not need any assumptions about functional form or physical constraints. Experiments were carried out using Carbopol Ultrez 10 (a viscoplastic polymeric gel) and polymer–water balls. We selected an artificial neural network model as an example of a data-driven approach to predicting wave characteristics. We first validated the model by comparing it with best-fit empirical equations. Then, we applied the proposed model to two scenarios which run into difficulty when modeled using those empirical equations: (i) predicting wave features from subaerial landslide parameters at their initial stage (with the mass beginning to move down the slope) rather than from the parameters at impact; and (ii) predicting waves generated by different slide materials, specifically, viscoplastic slides, granular slides, and viscoplastic–granular mixtures. The method proposed here can easily be updated when new parameters or constraints are introduced into the model.