Assessing the Ecological Need for Prescribed Fire in Michigan Using GIS-Based Multicriteria Decision Analysis: Igniting Fire Gaps

Abstract

In fire-suppressed landscapes, managers make difficult decisions about devoting limited resources for prescribed fire. Using GIS-based multicriteria decision analysis, we developed a model assessing ecological need for prescribed fire on Michigan’s state-owned lands, ranging from fire-dependent prairies, savannas, barrens, and oak and pine forests to fire-intolerant mesic forests, and including a diversity of wetlands. The model integrates fine-scale field-collected and broad-scale GIS data to identify where prescribed fire needs are greatest. We describe the model’s development and architecture, present results at multiple scales, introduce the concepts of “fire gaps” and “fire sink”, and rate the fire needs of more than 1.8 million hectares into one of six fire needs classes. Statewide, fire needs increase with decreasing latitude. The highest and lowest needs occur in southwestern Michigan and the Upper Peninsula, respectively, but actual fire application rates for these regions are inverted. The model suggests burn rates should be increased 2.2 to 13.4 times to burn all lands with greater than high fire needs. The model identifies regional patterns; highlights specific sites; and illustrates the disparity of fire needs and fire application. The modeling framework is broadly applicable to other geographies and efforts to prioritize stewardship of biodiversity at multiple scales.