A Bayesian Approach Based on Bayes Minimum Risk Decision for Reliability Assessment of Web Service Composition

Abstract

Web service composition is the process of combining and reusing existing web services to create new business processes to satisfy specific user requirements. Reliability plays an important role in ensuring the quality of web service composition. However, owing to the flexibility and complexity of such architecture, sufficient estimation of reliability is difficult. In this paper, the authors propose a method to estimate the reliability of web service compositions based on Bayes reliability assessment by considering it to be a decision-making problem. This improves the testing efficiency and accuracy of such methods. To this end, the authors focus on fully utilizing prior information of web services to increase the accuracy of prior distributions, and construct a Markov model in terms of the reliabilities of the web composition and each web service to integrate the limited test data. The authors further propose a method of minimum risk (MMR) to calculate the initial values of hyperparameters satisfying the constraint of minimal risk of the wrong decision. Experiments demonstrate that the proposed method is capable of efficiently utilizing prior module-level failure information, comparing with the Bayesian Monte Carlo method (BMCM) and expert scoring method (ESM), when the number of failures increased from 0 to 5, reducing the required number of test cases from 19.8% to 28.9% and 6.1% to 14.1% separately, improving the reliability assessment of web service compositions, and reducing the expenses incurred by system-level reliability testing and demonstration.