Influences of Climatic Factors and Human Activities on Forest–Shrub–Grass Suitability in the Yellow River Basin, China

Abstract

Natural and human factors co-drive changes in vegetation type and distribution. In this study, we constructed an index system covering 17 natural and human activity indicators in six dimensions by using climate data, county-level human activity data, and forest–shrub–grass suitability data from 448 sample counties in the Yellow River Basin of China in 2018. On this basis, we evaluated the influence of human activities and climatic factors on vegetation suitability using multiple regression and relative importance analysis methods. The multiple regression results demonstrate that climatic factors had positive effects on vegetation suitability in the Yellow River Basin, while the influence of human activities on vegetation suitability varied according to the situation. Specifically, economic factors such as per capita disposable income of urban residents and per capita disposable income of rural residents; urbanization factors such as population density, urbanization rate, and construction land area proportion; social development factors such as road density; and agricultural production factors such as the cultivated acreage proportion and the value added of the primary industries proportion all influence vegetation suitability. There is a great regional heterogeneity in the effects of human activities such as economic factors and urbanization factors on vegetation suitability. The relative importance analysis results show that the relative importance of the factors influencing vegetation suitability in the Yellow River Basin was as follows, in order of importance: climatic factors > agricultural production factors > urbanization factors > ecological projects > social development factors > economy factors; however, except for climatic factors, the importance of other influencing factors varied from region to region. This study provides a theoretical basis for optimizing vegetation adjustment schemes and forest and grass ecosystem layout according to regional characteristics.