Fault Prediction of Control Clusters Based on an Improved Arithmetic Optimization Algorithm and BP Neural Network

Abstract

Higher accuracy in cluster failure prediction can ensure the long-term stable operation of cluster systems and effectively alleviate energy losses caused by system failures. Previous works have mostly employed BP neural networks (BPNNs) to predict system faults, but this approach suffers from reduced prediction accuracy due to the inappropriate initialization of weights and thresholds. To address these issues, this paper proposes an improved arithmetic optimization algorithm (AOA) to optimize the initial weights and thresholds in BPNNs. Specifically, we first introduced an improved AOA via multi-subpopulation and comprehensive learning strategies, called MCLAOA. This approach employed multi-subpopulations to effectively alleviate the poor global exploration performance caused by a single elite, and the comprehensive learning strategy enhanced the exploitation performance via information exchange among individuals. More importantly, a nonlinear strategy with a tangent function was designed to ensure a smooth balance and transition between exploration and exploitation. Secondly, the proposed MCLAOA was utilized to optimize the initial weights and thresholds of BPNNs in cluster fault prediction, which could enhance the accuracy of fault prediction models. Finally, the experimental results for 23 benchmark functions, CEC2020 benchmark problems, and two engineering examples demonstrated that the proposed MCLAOA outperformed other swarm intelligence algorithms. For the 23 benchmark functions, it improved the optimal solutions in 16 functions compared to the basic AOA. The proposed fault prediction model achieved comparable performance to other swarm-intelligence-based BPNN models. Compared to basic BPNNs and AOA-BPNNs, the MCLAOA-BPNN showed improvements of 2.0538 and 0.8762 in terms of mean absolute percentage error, respectively.