Modeling Resilience and Sustainability of Water-Subsidized Systems: An Example from Northwest Costa Rica

Abstract

Water-subsidized systems are growing in number and maintaining the sustainability of such complex systems presents unique challenges. Interbasin water transfer creates new sociohydrological dynamics that come with tradeoffs and potential regime shifts. The Tempisque-Bebedero watershed in Northwest Costa Rica typifies this class of watershed: Transferred water is used for power generation and irrigated agriculture with significant downstream environmental impacts. To improve and clarify our understanding of the effects of social and biophysical factors on the resilience of such systems, a stylized dynamical systems model was developed, using as a guide the situation in the Tempisque-Bebedero watershed. This model was analyzed to understand the nature of socio-hydrologic regimes that exist in this class of basins and what factors determine these regimes. The model analysis revealed five distinct regimes and different regime shift behaviors dependent on environmental and policy conditions. This work offers insights into other complex socio-hydrologic systems with similar processes.