An Interpretable Extreme Gradient Boosting Model to Predict Ash Fusion Temperatures

Abstract

The hemispherical temperature (HT) is the most important indicator representing ash fusion temperatures (AFTs) in the Polish industry to assess the suitability of coal for combustion as well as gasification purposes. It is important, for safe operation and energy saving, to know or to be able to predict value of this parameter. In this study a non-linear model predicting the HT value, based on ash oxides content for 360 coal samples from the Upper Silesian Coal Basin, was developed. The proposed model was established using the machine learning method—extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) regressor. An important feature of models based on the XGBoost algorithm is the ability to determine the impact of individual input parameters on the predicted value using the feature importance (FI) technique. This method allowed the determination of ash oxides having the greatest impact on the projected HT. Then, the partial dependence plots (PDP) technique was used to visualize the effect of individual oxides on the predicted value. The results indicate that proposed model could estimate value of HT with high accuracy. The coefficient of determination (R2) of the prediction has reached satisfactory value of 0.88.