Disentangling the Complexity of Regional Ecosystem Degradation: Uncovering the Interconnected Natural-Social Drivers of Quantity and Quality Loss

Abstract

In the face of the combined effects of economic development and climate change, ecosystems are experiencing unprecedented pressures. It is imperative to diagnose changes in the quantity and quality of ecosystems, as well as identify the integrated natural and social driving mechanisms that underlie these changes, in order to facilitate ecosystem restoration and maintenance. In this study, we analyzed the changes in forest, grassland, farmland, and water ecosystems in Hubei Province, China from 2000 to 2020. We examined the changes in ecosystem quantity by assessing their area, and for evaluating ecosystem quality, we utilized an ecosystem quality index (EQI). To further understand the integrated natural–social driving mechanisms behind the degradation of different types of ecosystems, we selected four natural factors and fifteen socio-economic factors, based on the influences of climate change and human activities. We employed stepwise regression models for analysis. Our study reveals significant degradation of farmland and grassland ecosystems in Hubei Province from 2000 to 2020, reducing by 5.16% and 82.46%, respectively. The water ecosystems have slightly decreased by 1.08%, while and the forest ecosystems has increased by 2.64%. The analysis further highlights that the total area of ecosystem quality degradation in Hubei Province reached 5.34%. Additionally, our findings indicate that human activities have a greater impact on the quantitative degradation of ecosystems, while climate change has a greater impact on the quality degradation of ecosystems. Specifically, the forestry output value has a significant negative impact on the area of farmland and grassland ecosystems, while rural per capita net income and fishery output value have a significant negative impact on water area. Annual precipitation and annual average temperature have a significant positive effect on the quality of ecosystems in the good-quality level, while ecosystems in the low-quality level are mainly influenced by annual evaporation. Our results provide valuable insights for policymakers seeking to restore and manage ecosystems effectively in order to promote regional sustainable development.