Evaluating the Performance of Individual and Novel Ensemble of Machine Learning and Statistical Models for Landslide Susceptibility Assessment at Rudraprayag District of Garhwal Himalaya

Abstract

Landslides are known as the world’s most dangerous threat in mountainous regions and pose a critical obstacle for both economic and infrastructural progress. It is, therefore, quite relevant to discuss the pattern of spatial incidence of this phenomenon. The current research manifests a set of individual and ensemble of machine learning and probabilistic approaches like an artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), logistic regression (LR), and their ensembles such as ANN-RF, ANN-SVM, SVM-RF, SVM-LR, LR-RF, LR-ANN, ANN-LR-RF, ANN-RF-SVM, ANN-SVM-LR, RF-SVM-LR, and ANN-RF-SVM-LR for mapping landslide susceptibility in Rudraprayag district of Garhwal Himalaya, India. A landslide inventory map along with sixteen landslide conditioning factors (LCFs) was used. Randomly partitioned sets of 70%:30% were used to ascertain the goodness of fit and predictive ability of the models. The contribution of LCFs was analyzed using the RF model. The altitude and drainage density were found to be the responsible factors in causing the landslide in the study area according to the RF model. The robustness of models was assessed through three threshold dependent measures, i.e., receiver operating characteristic (ROC), precision and accuracy, and two threshold independent measures, i.e., mean-absolute-error (MAE) and root-mean-square-error (RMSE). Finally, using the compound factor (CF) method, the models were prioritized based on the results of the validation methods to choose best model. Results show that ANN-RF-LR indicated a realistic finding, concentrating only on 17.74% of the study area as highly susceptible to landslide. The ANN-RF-LR ensemble demonstrated the highest goodness of fit and predictive capacity with respective values of 87.83% (area under the success rate curve) and 93.98% (area under prediction rate curve), and the highest robustness correspondingly. These attempts will play a significant role in ensemble modeling, in building reliable and comprehensive models. The proposed ANN-RF-LR ensemble model may be used in the other geographic areas having similar geo-environmental conditions. It may also be used in other types of geo-hazard modeling.