Hidden Link Prediction in Criminal Networks Using the Deep Reinforcement Learning Technique

Abstract

Criminal network activities, which are usually secret and stealthy, present certain difficulties in conducting criminal network analysis (CNA) because of the lack of complete datasets. The collection of criminal activities data in these networks tends to be incomplete and inconsistent, which is reflected structurally in the criminal network in the form of missing nodes (actors) and links (relationships). Criminal networks are commonly analyzed using social network analysis (SNA) models. Most machine learning techniques that rely on the metrics of SNA models in the development of hidden or missing link prediction models utilize supervised learning. However, supervised learning usually requires the availability of a large dataset to train the link prediction model in order to achieve an optimum performance level. Therefore, this research is conducted to explore the application of deep reinforcement learning (DRL) in developing a criminal network hidden links prediction model from the reconstruction of a corrupted criminal network dataset. The experiment conducted on the model indicates that the dataset generated by the DRL model through self-play or self-simulation can be used to train the link prediction model. The DRL link prediction model exhibits a better performance than a conventional supervised machine learning technique, such as the gradient boosting machine (GBM) trained with a relatively smaller domain dataset.