Impacts of Radar Data Assimilation on the Forecast of “12.8” Extreme Rainstorm in Central China (2021)

Abstract

Dual-polarization radar data are useful for numerical models to improve precipitation forecasts. For an extremely heavy precipitation event that occurred in Central China on 11 August 2021, the hydrometeor concentration and water vapor content used in the initial field of the Weather Research and Forecasting (version 4.1) model are retrieved by the statistical relationship of relative humidity with dual-polarization radar reflectivity in Suizhou City of Central China. Three experiments are conducted, and the simulation results are compared after assimilating the radar data. The results indicate that the multiple factors contributing to this extreme heavy precipitation event included the divergence of upper-level airflows, the middle- and low-level low vortex/shear, the easterly jet stream in front of the low vortex, and the continuous intrusion of cold air on the ground. In addition, with the retrieval of the hydrometeor concentration and water vapor content, the composite reflectivity forecast results are more similar to the observations. Also, the location and intensity of the short-term extremely heavy precipitation event are less different from the observations. In addition, by cyclically adjusting the hydrometeor concentration and water vapor content in the initial field, we can obtain better forecasts of the reflectivity and short-term extremely heavy precipitation, and this improvement can be maintained for approximately 3 h.