Optimizing Predictive Maintenance Decisions: Use of Non-Arbitrary Multi-Covariate Bands in a Novel Condition Assessment under a Machine Learning Approach

Abstract

Jointing Condition-Based Maintenance (CBM) with the Proportional Hazards Model (PHM), asset-intensive industries often monitor vital covariates to predict failure rate, the reliability function, and maintenance decisions. This analysis requires defining the transition probabilities of asset conditions evolving among states over time. When only one covariate is assessed, the model’s parameters are commonly obtained from expert opinions to provide state bands directly. However, the challenge lies within multiple covariate problems, where arbitrary judgment can be difficult and debatable, since the composite measurement does not represent any physical magnitude. In addition, selecting covariates lacks procedures to prioritize the most relevant ones. Therefore, the present work aimed to determine multiple covariate bands for the transition probability matrix via supervised classification and unsupervised clustering. We used Machine Learning (ML) to strengthen the PHM model and to complement expert knowledge. This paper allows obtaining the number of covariate bands and the optimal limits of each one when dealing with predictive maintenance decisions. This novel proposal of an ML condition assessment is a robust alternative to the expert criterion to provide accurate results, increasing the expectation of the remaining useful life for critical assets. Finally, this research has built an enriched bridge between the decision areas of predictive maintenance and Data Science.