Urban Human Settlement Vulnerability Evolution and Mechanisms: The Case of Anhui Province, China

Abstract

In this paper, taking the jurisdiction of Anhui Province as the research area, a vulnerability assessment index system of human settlements was constructed from “exposure–sensitivity–coping ability”. Based on the GIS spatial analysis method, the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of human settlements in Anhui Province were analyzed. The influences of human factors and natural factors on the spatial differentiation of human settlement vulnerability were explored by using geographic detectors, and the driving mechanism of the evolution of human settlement vulnerability was analyzed. An analysis of the results showed the following: ① With a change in the time scale, the human settlement vulnerability index showed a trend of decreasing year by year, the exposure and sensitivity show a downward trend year by year in the three major subsystems, and the coping ability shows an upward trend year by year. ② The evolution of the vulnerability subsystems of exposure, sensitivity, and coping ability in human settlement environments showed the directions of “medium–high–low (M-H-L)” in the early stage, “low–high–medium (L-H-M)” in the middle stage, and “low–medium–high (L-M-H)” in the later stage. ③ The causes of high vulnerability were as follows: The leading factors in the early stage were natural factors, the leading factors in the middle period were natural and human factors, and the leading factors in the later stage were human factors. ④ One-factor and two-factor interactive detection using a geodetector showed that urbanization, industrialization, land use control, and per capita income levels have become key and “short-board” factors that control the vulnerability of human settlements.