The Application of Analytical Hierarchy Process in Combination with PESTEL-SWOT Analysis to Assess the Hydrocarbons Sector in Cyprus

Abstract

Natural gas reserves have been recently found offshore of Cyprus. Hence, a new energy sector is under development, creating potential for raised welfare for the small insular EU member. Several social and economic benefits could be achieved from the resources’ exploitation. However, natural gas is a non-renewable energy source, connected with the major environmental issues of fossil fuels. The research goal of this work was to evaluate the sustainability of the new hydrocarbons sector. This was attained using a set of indicators, developed from the combination of PESTEL (Political, Economic, Technical, Social, Environmental, Legal) and SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) analyses. These were quantified using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) weighting method. They were pairwise compared and evaluated, resulting to a size for each one. The judgements of four evaluators, representing diverse interested parties, were used. The strengths and opportunities of the sector were found to be more than the weaknesses and threats. The relevant indicators quantification demonstrates also that the value of the positives is higher than the negatives. Therefore, if the first are enhanced and the latter are mitigated, there is sustainability potential. The sectors environmental issues are evaluated as the most important, followed by the economic. The other takes lower but comparatively significant values, and must be handled accordingly. These results lead to useful conclusions and could be exploited for decision-making and policies formulation.