Valuing Enhanced Hydrologic Data and Forecasting for Informing Hydropower Operations

Abstract

Climate change is rapidly modifying historic river flows and snowpack conditions in the Sierra Nevada in California and other seasonally snow-covered mountains. Statistical forecasting methods based on regressing summer flow against spring snow water equivalent, precipitation, and antecedent runoff are thus becoming increasingly inadequate for water-resources decision making, which can lead to missed opportunities in maximizing beneficial uses, including the value of hydropower resources. An enhanced forecasting method using a process-based model and spatially distributed wireless sensor data offers more accurate runoff forecasts. In this paper, we assessed the forecasting accuracy of these two forecasting methods by applying them to two tributaries within the North Fork Feather River basin in California. The result shows the enhanced forecasting method having better accuracy than the statistical model. In addition, a hydropower simulation showed a considerable increase in energy value with the enhanced forecasting informing reservoir operations. The investment analysis on applying this method shows an average internal rate of return of 31% across all scenarios, making this forecasting method an attractive way to better inform water-related decisions for hydropower generation in the context of climate change.