A High-Resolution (20 m) Simulation of Nighttime Low Temperature Inducing Agricultural Crop Damage with the WRF–LES Modeling System

Abstract

In Korea, sudden cold weather in spring occurs repeatedly every year and causes severe damage to field crops and fruit trees. Detailed forecasting of the daily minimum or suddenly decreasing temperature, closely related to the local topography, has been required in the farmer community. High-resolution temperature models based on empirical formulas or statistical downscaling have fundamental limitations, making it difficult to perform biophysical application and mechanism explanation on small-scale complex terrains. Weather Research and Forecasting–Large Eddy Simulation (WRF–LES) can provide a dynamically and physically scientific tool to be easily applied for farm-scale numerical weather predictions. However, it has been applied mainly for urban areas and in convective boundary layer studies until now. In this study, 20 m resolution WRF–LES simulation of nighttime near-surface temperature and wind was performed for two cold spring weather events that induced significant crop damages in the apple production area and the results were verified with automatic weather station observation data. The study showed that the maximum mean bias of temperature was −1.75 °C and the minimum was −0.68 °C in the spring, while the root mean square error varied between 2.13 and 3.00 °C. The minimum temperature and its duration significantly affected the crop damage, and the WRF–LES could accurately simulate both features. This implies that the application of WRF–LES, with proper nest-domain configuration and harmonized physical options, to the prediction of nighttime frost in rural areas has promising feasibility for orchard- or farm-scale frost prevention and low-temperature management.