Simulation of Climate Change Impacts on Phenology and Production of Winter Wheat in Northwestern China Using CERES-Wheat Model

Abstract

Wheat plays a very important role in China’s agriculture. The wheat grain yields are affected by the growing period that is determined by temperature, precipitation, and field management, such as planting date and cultivar species. Here, we used the CSM-CERES-Wheat model along with different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and two global circulation models (GCMs) to simulate different impacts on the winter wheat that caused by changing climate for 2025 and 2050 projections for Guanzhong Plain in Northwest China. Our results showed that it is obvious that there is a warming trend in Guanzhong Plain; the mean temperature for the different scenarios increased up to 3.8 °C. Furthermore, the precipitation varied in the year; in general, the rainfall in February and August was increased, while it decreased in April, October and November. However, the solar radiation was found to be greatly reduced in the Guanzhong Plain. Compared to the reference year, the results showed that the number of days to maturity was shortened 3–24 days, and the main reason was the increased temperature during the winter wheat growing period. Moreover, five planting dates (from October 7 to 27 with five days per step) were applied to simulate the final yield and to select an appropriate planting date for the study area. The yield changed smallest based on Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)-CM3 (−6.5, −5.3, −4.2 based on RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5) for 2025 when planting on October 27. Farmers might have to plant the crop before 27 October.