Hurricane Dorian Outer Rain Band Observations and 1D Particle Model Simulations: A Case Study

Abstract

The availability of high quality surface observations of precipitation and volume observations by polarimetric operational radars make it possible to constrain, evaluate, and validate numerical models with a wide variety of microphysical schemes. In this article, a novel particle-based Monte-Carlo microphysical model (called McSnow) is used to simulate the outer rain bands of Hurricane Dorian which traversed the densely instrumented precipitation research facility operated by NASA at Wallops Island, Virginia. The rain bands showed steady stratiform vertical profiles with radar signature of dendritic growth layers near −15 °C and peak reflectivity in the bright band of 55 dBZ along with polarimetric signatures of wet snow with sizes inferred to exceed 15 mm. A 2D-video disdrometer measured frequent occurrences of large drops >5 mm and combined with an optical array probe the drop size distribution was well-documented in spite of uncertainty for drops <0.5 mm due to high wind gusts and turbulence. The 1D McSnow control run and four numerical experiments were conducted and compared with observations. One of the main findings is that even at the moderate rain rate of 10 mm/h collisional breakup is essential for the shape of the drop size distribution.