Risk Assessment of An Earthquake-Collapse-Landslide Disaster Chain by Bayesian Network and Newmark Models

Abstract

Severe natural disasters and related secondary disasters are a huge menace to society. Currently, it is difficult to identify risk formation mechanisms and quantitatively evaluate the risks associated with disaster chains; thus, there is a need to further develop relevant risk assessment methods. In this research, we propose an earthquake disaster chain risk evaluation method that couples Bayesian network and Newmark models that are based on natural hazard risk formation theory with the aim of identifying the influence of earthquake disaster chains. This new method effectively considers two risk elements: hazard and vulnerability, and hazard analysis, which includes chain probability analysis and hazard intensity analysis. The chain probability of adjacent disasters was obtained from the Bayesian network model, and the permanent displacement that was applied to represent the potential hazard intensity was calculated by the Newmark model. To validate the method, the Changbai Mountain volcano earthquake–collapse–landslide disaster chain was selected as a case study. The risk assessment results showed that the high-and medium-risk zones were predominantly located within a 10 km radius of Tianchi, and that other regions within the study area were mainly associated with very low-to low-risk values. The verified results of the reported method showed that the area of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.817, which indicates that the method is very effective for earthquake disaster chain risk recognition and assessment.