A Study on the Optimal Deep Learning Model for Dam Inflow Prediction

Abstract

In the midst of climate change, the need for accurate predictions of dam inflow to reduce flood damage along with stable water supply from water resources is increasing. In this study, the process and method of selecting the optimal deep learning model using hydrologic data over the past 20 years to predict dam inflow were shown. The study area is Andong Dam and Imha Dam located upstream of the Nakdong River in South Korea. In order to select the optimal model for predicting the inflow of two dams, sixteen scenarios (2 × 2 × 4) are generated considering two dams, two climatic conditions, and four deep learning models. During the drought period, the RNN for Andong Dam and the LSTM for Imha Dam were selected as the optimal models for each dam, and the difference between observations was the smallest at 4% and 2%, respectively. In typhoon conditions, the GRU for Andong Dam and the RNN for Imha Dam were selected as optimal models. In the case of Typhoon Maemi, the GRU and the RNN showed a difference of 2% and 6% from the observed maximum inflow, respectively. The optimal recurrent neural network-based models selected in this study showed a closer prediction to the observed inflow than the SFM, which is currently used to predict the inflow of both dams. For the two dams, different optimal models were selected according to watershed characteristics and rainfall under drought and typhoon conditions. In addition, most of the deep learning models were more accurate than the SFM under various typhoon conditions, but the SFM showed better results under certain conditions. Therefore, for efficient dam operation and management, it is necessary to make a rational decision by comparing the inflow predictions of the SFM and deep learning models.